Betting players study statistics, but make the same mistake all the time. To win regularly in betting, you need to be able to analyse matches. But how to do it? In this article we’ll discuss the main mistake of players in the analysis, understand the principles of odds movement and find out when it’s safe to bet on football and other sports.
Use statistics to analyse sporting events. Study the statistics and increase your chances of winning.
If you choose football matches to bet on, consider the following information:
- Match history.
- Results from the last matches.
- Position of the teams in the tournament.
- Number of rest days since the last match.
- Results of opponents at home and away.
- History of opposing head coaches.
- Results of matches against higher ranked teams.
- Results of matches against lower ranked teams.
- Disqualifications and injuries of players.
- Results of teams when officiating by an appointed referee.
The main mistake players make when choosing a bet on a football match is to use only part of the statistics and ignore important facts. To analyse football matches, study all available statistics.
For example, you are considering a bet on Manchester City’s away win against Wolverhampton in the APL. “The Citizens have won four matches in a row, while Wolves lost their previous home encounter.
Manchester City have only one win in the last five matches against Wolverhampton in regulation time. The Wolves ended up beating the Citizens 3-2.
Analysis of odds movement
Bookmakers put up the line for football matches a few days, and in some cases a few weeks and even months in advance.
The odds for the different selections change according to the players’ actions: a large number of bets will decrease the odds for the selected outcome and increase the odds for the opposing outcome.
For example, for the UFC fight between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Dustin Porrier, bookmakers put the following line: odds of 1.42 on Nurmagomedov’s victory and 3.05 on Porrier’s victory.
A minute before the start of the fight, the line looked as follows: odds of 1.20 on Nurmagomedov’s victory and 3.95 on Porier’s victory. This means that the vast majority of punters opted in favour of Khabib.
You can track the movement of odds on specialized websites. But remember: the opinion of the majority of players can be erroneous.
When choosing a bet on a football match or other sport, analyze the publications in the sports media about the upcoming event.
For example, to predict a football match, study the following information:
- Press conferences of the head coaches.
- Player interviews.
- The latest news on the condition of the injured.
- Publications about player-coach relations.
- Rumours of possible transfers.
- The latest news about changes at the club.
- Statements from united fan groups.
It is impossible to make a definite assessment of the teams’ physical and psychological condition, but the information you get will increase your chances of getting an accurate prediction.
For instance, at Barcelona some players and fans were not happy with the general manager. The Catalan management sent Ernesto Valverde to resign. There was also a conflict within the club between Messi and the sporting director, and there were arguments between players in training sessions.
Against this backdrop, from 14 December 2019 to 7 February 2020, Barcelona won only five matches out of 11.
Analysis of line-ups
In team sports, analyse your opponents’ chances only after the starting line-ups have been announced.
The influence of individual players on the final result is great.
For example, an hour before kickoff of the NBA game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets, it was reported that LeBron James would miss the game. Without their leader, the hosts lost with a score of 104:128.
Analysis of experts’ opinions
Use other people’s predictions to gain valuable information. Blindly repeating an expert’s bet is risky. Only consider the facts.
To increase your chances of winning, analyse all the information about the sporting event: statistics, media coverage, athletes’ strengths and weaknesses. Bet on the match only after the starting line-ups are announced and use expert opinions to get valuable information.