There are two goals in betting. The first is to win and have fun. The second is to avoid losing. Strategies to minimise risk will help.
In sports betting, everyone is interested in losing less. Therefore, betting with minimal risk is a logical choice. What strategies allow you to reduce the risk at the bookmaker to a minimum, what their advantages and disadvantages are, whether it is worth it to bet like that – in this article.
What is low-risk sports betting
Experienced bettors know that there are no win-win strategies in the game. Yes, there are forks and corridors, there are after-goals – but it cannot be called a betting game. When you bet by analysis, surprises are inevitable: favorites lose to underdogs, scoring teams dry up matches, experienced fighters lose to youngsters.
But there is a clear difference between, for example, betting on a clean outcome in a match and betting on a favourite with a plus handicap. The probability of the second type of bet is higher. These are the minimum risk bets. Their odds are very low, but the probability of losing is also low.
These bets should be placed with a low risk strategy.
What are the minimum risk betting strategies?
A strategy is a set of principles which guides the players when choosing a bet, its amount and the amount of the next bet. Let’s look at the basic minimum risk sports betting strategies.
Forks in sports betting
We started by saying that forks would not be a betting game in its purest form. But it is worth getting to grips with what are called forks and how they work.
Let’s demonstrate with an example. A tennis match between two players. Betting odds 1.65 for the first player to win, while betting odds 2.60 for the second player. If you bet the pot in the right ratio, you’ll be in the black at either outcome of the match. Your profit will be 0.94% of the total amount you risked.
With tennis the situation is clear. But you can bet a fork on a three-way match as well. Let’s take a classic football match with three outcomes. Suppose they give odds 1.59 for the first team, 8.40 for the second team, and 4.13 for a draw. If a player bets on the specified outcomes in the correct ratio, he will get a profit of 1% of the bet amount on top.
Forklickers find the right odds difference at bookmakers with the help of scanners, which collect and compare the lines of many bookmakers’ offices. The scanner shows what is the potential profit of the fork, on which outcomes and at which bookmakers to bet, how much of the total amount to bet on each outcome to stay in the black. Usually, a fork brings 1-5% net profit of all bets.
This strategy looks like a win-win betting strategy, not just a low-risk strategy. Scan the line, place your bets, make money. But it’s not all that simple! Forklickers are forced to cheat by creating multiple accounts with the same bookmakers. This is forbidden by the rules of any bookmaker’s office and punishable.
Betting on forks is no longer relevant for several reasons.
- Bookmakers monitor competitors’ odds and quickly remove forked situations: a player does not have time to bet on all outcomes and loses the opportunity to make a guaranteed profit at the end of the event.
- Most bookmakers block the accounts of forked bettors: the ban on forks is spelled out in the rules of bookmakers’ offices, for violation it may even invalidate the bank and delete the account from the betting company’s website.
- Bookmakers control the size of the odds: it is not possible to make a large sum of money on a small number of forks, the player has to increase the number of bets.
- You have to register with a large number of betting sites to bet on all outcomes at favourable odds.
- A large bank and current balance in several bookmakers’ offices is needed to promptly make the necessary bets.
As a result, betting on forks is extremely risky and unprofitable. For a beginner, it looks like a senseless activity that is more likely to lead to the loss of money and blocking of bookmaker’s accounts.
Betting strategy on favourites
This strategy is based on the belief that the favourites will win. We have already said that even a 100% favourite can lose to a hopeless underdog. But that does not happen very often. The strategy implies that the player selects the matches cautiously and bets on those teams and athletes whose low odds are justified.
For the strategy to work, you need a high frequency of betting as the odds are low. Even one minus will take a long time to recover.
The efficiency of the strategy of betting on favourites entirely depends on the selection of bets. The choice of sports events is huge. Even a long analysis of the line, expert opinion may not lead to any significant income. And you will spend a lot of time for the selection of matches.
Double odds betting strategy
A double chance is a betting strategy in a bookmaker’s office in which two outcomes win for the player at the same time. For example, an 1x bet wins both when the first team wins and when there is a draw.
A 1x bet is equivalent to +0.5, so plus handicaps are also used in the strategy. Betting with double odds can be used as a safety net for the favourite’s result or in a situation where the team is underestimated by the bookmaker and the bet with insurance looks favourable.
Total betting strategy
The total is the number of goals or pucks scored in a match. This strategy involves betting on goal totals in football championships, which are distinguished by their effectiveness. The Dutch, Belgian, Icelandic, Czech and English championships are very popular with the players. These tournaments have a high goal scoring potential. The fans of the strategy of betting on totals advise to bet on the total more in these competitions for odds 1.80-2.00.
Efficiency is achieved if the total is scored in 55-60% of matches. The player must be able to find the right matches; even in the most high-scoring championships one can come across dry games. Bettors analyse teams’ recent games, tactics and weather conditions.
Basketball betting strategy by quarters
The essence of the strategy is that the underdog rarely loses all the quarters in a basketball game, even against the clear favorite, and the odds on it will be high. The leader achieves a certain handicap and tends to relax, maybe releasing a couple of young players to gain experience. Finally, bookmakers are more likely to underestimate outsiders than favourites.
To play this strategy, choose a match where there is not much difference between the teams. The player bets on a clean win for the underdog or a victory with a handicap for the first quarter. If the bet goes in, the bettor moves on to the next match, if not, doubles the bet and bets on the next quarter. And so it goes until the bet wins.
Live betting strategy by statistics
This system requires long-term tracking of the events in the in-play and the player’s quick reaction to the changes in these matches. Experienced players use special software to see the stats for several matches in one place.
The emphasis of this strategy is that the betting shop player can get the most complete and up to date information on players, teams, and make the right decision in real time.
The betting strategy is based on the events of the match. If one team charges a lot, shoots on goal, we take the individual total for a small margin, a negative handicap on the leader, etc. Teams attack a lot from the beginning of the match, but by the twentieth minute there are no goals – try total over 0,5 or total more than 1 in the first half depending on the odds.
Do I bet on a system with minimal risk?
These strategies do not guarantee that you will make money on your bets. A big reduction in risk always results in lower winnings. And the end result will not necessarily be a profitable one.
Whatever low-risk betting strategy you select, look for undervalued bets. It is more dangerous to bet on overrated favourites at undervalued odds. If the strategy does not produce a win at a distance, do not hesitate – change it and try a new one.
